Skip to content

← Tech odds

Updated 4 days ago

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?

Tech

92 %

chance

▲ +0.4%1h▲ +1.3%24h▼ −1.2%1W
Yes 92¢No 8¢

Market brief

  • Last 50 trades: 36 buys, 14 sells; the largest was $484 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 88% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 85–95% seven days before the end resolved YES (680 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 3 wk. (Dec 1, 2026).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

◆ Your call

What's your number?

Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.

50%
Saved in this browser only. No account needed.

Result by email

Find out how it ends

One email when this market resolves. No account needed.

We send a confirmation link first. After the result email, we delete your address. Privacy

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

Request analysisPart of every plan · 7 days for $3

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

6 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$100.7K

24h vol.

$13.1K

Liquidity

$77K

End date

Dec 1, 2026

ends in 3 wk.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
  • Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
  • Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
See plans · 7 days for $3
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$41.2K

1m vol.

$100.7K

Bid / Ask

92¢ / 93¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

92¢

Start date

Oct 20, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 3¢
Bids (buy)Size
90¢$37
89¢$20
89¢$99
89¢$60
89¢$190
89¢$317
88¢$300
88¢$180
88¢$250
88¢$51
Asks (sell)Size
93¢$60
93¢$300
93¢$183
93¢$20
94¢$52
95¢$220
95¢$240
95¢$502
96¢$8
96¢$160

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 91%Sells 9%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
4 days agoBuy92¢61
5 days agoSell89¢42
5 days agoBuy88¢79
5 days agoSell88¢49
5 days agoSell88¢59
5 days agoSell89¢97
5 days agoSell89¢10
5 days agoBuy92¢10
5 days agoBuy92¢99
5 days agoBuy89¢50
5 days agoBuy89¢80
5 days agoBuy89¢0
5 days agoSell88¢57
5 days agoBuy92¢60
5 days agoBuy92¢8
5 days agoSell88¢60
5 days agoBuy94¢1,299
5 days agoSell89¢30
5 days agoBuy91¢54
5 days agoBuy91¢254
5 days agoSell87¢139
5 days agoSell88¢20
5 days agoBuy89¢466
5 days agoBuy87¢3,672
5 days agoSell84¢3
5 days agoBuy90¢39
5 days agoBuy87¢51
5 days agoBuy87¢283
5 days agoBuy90¢222
5 days agoSell85¢39
5 days agoBuy85¢5
5 days agoBuy86¢28
5 days agoSell84¢79
5 days agoBuy86¢1
5 days agoBuy84¢95
6 days agoBuy84¢6
6 days agoBuy84¢7
6 days agoBuy84¢7
6 days agoBuy83¢14
6 days agoBuy83¢26
6 days agoBuy83¢0
6 days agoBuy83¢19
6 days agoBuy83¢13
6 days agoBuy84¢28
6 days agoBuy84¢12
6 days agoBuy83¢19
6 days agoBuy83¢33
6 days agoBuy84¢14
6 days agoSell83¢57
6 days agoBuy84¢18
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Event:
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

Related markets

Open Tech markets from other events — closest to this one first.

Keep exploring