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Updated 2 wk. ago

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?

Tech

97 %

chance

▲ +2.0%1h▲ +1.5%24h▲ +1.5%1W
Yes 97¢No 3¢

Market brief

  • Last 50 trades: 38 buys, 12 sells; the largest was $530 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 97% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 95–100% seven days before the end resolved YES (359 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 1 mo. (Dec 16, 2026).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

6 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$32.4K

24h vol.

$1.7K

Liquidity

$21.6K

End date

Dec 16, 2026

ends in 1 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$7.2K

1m vol.

$32.4K

Bid / Ask

96¢ / 98¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

96¢

Start date

Oct 20, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
92¢$130
91¢$919
90¢$794
89¢$321
88¢$825
87¢$459
86¢$8
85¢$100
84¢$100
83¢$56
Asks (sell)Size
93¢$495
94¢$797
95¢$577
96¢$965
97¢$3,432
98¢$6,712
99¢$934

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 75%Sells 25%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 wk. agoBuy92¢10
2 wk. agoBuy94¢10
2 wk. agoSell91¢15
2 wk. agoSell91¢15
2 wk. agoBuy91¢22
2 wk. agoBuy91¢22
2 wk. agoBuy91¢47
2 wk. agoBuy95¢2
2 wk. agoBuy94¢1
2 wk. agoBuy94¢1
2 wk. agoBuy94¢5
2 wk. agoBuy94¢2
2 wk. agoBuy94¢11
2 wk. agoBuy94¢5
2 wk. agoBuy93¢110
2 wk. agoBuy93¢116
2 wk. agoBuy92¢217
2 wk. agoBuy92¢54
2 wk. agoBuy90¢104
2 wk. agoBuy89¢595
2 wk. agoBuy89¢30
2 wk. agoSell88¢93
2 wk. agoBuy89¢70
2 wk. agoBuy88¢30
2 wk. agoBuy90¢50
2 wk. agoBuy89¢91
2 wk. agoBuy88¢8
2 wk. agoBuy83¢87
2 wk. agoBuy83¢9
2 wk. agoBuy83¢9
2 wk. agoBuy85¢1
2 wk. agoBuy85¢1
2 wk. agoBuy85¢1
2 wk. agoBuy85¢1
2 wk. agoBuy81¢40
2 wk. agoBuy80¢16
2 wk. agoBuy82¢16
2 wk. agoBuy80¢24
2 wk. agoSell82¢50
2 wk. agoBuy85¢50
2 wk. agoSell80¢109
2 wk. agoSell84¢101
2 wk. agoSell81¢130
2 wk. agoSell83¢11
2 wk. agoSell84¢91
2 wk. agoSell84¢8
2 wk. agoSell83¢12
2 wk. agoSell83¢12
2 wk. agoBuy85¢11
2 wk. agoBuy83¢20
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Event:
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

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