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Updated 4 days ago

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 13, 2026?

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 13, 2026?

Tech

16 %

chance

▼ −0.5%1h▼ −46.0%24h▼ −64.0%1W
Yes 16¢No 84¢

Market brief

  • Down 64.0 pp over the past week (−46.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 94% on Nov 5, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 21 buys, 29 sells; the largest was $839 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 32% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 15–35% one day before the end resolved YES (5,439 cases). That is more often than their average price of 26% implied — prices in this range have run low.
  • Scheduled to end in 1 day (Nov 14, 2026).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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✦ AI assessment

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GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

6 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$40.4K

24h vol.

$8.6K

Liquidity

$2.5K

End date

Nov 14, 2026

ends in 1 day

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
  • Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
  • Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
See plans · 7 days for $3
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$30.1K

1m vol.

$40.4K

Bid / Ask

14¢ / 18¢

Spread 4¢

Last trade

16¢

Start date

Nov 3, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
49¢$160
48¢$618
47¢$129
46¢$13
44¢$58
42¢$24
41¢$160
19¢$20
18¢$30
17¢$572
Asks (sell)Size
50¢$125
51¢$150
52¢$109
53¢$209
54¢$13
55¢$73
56¢$513
57¢$13
58¢$13
59¢$50

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 61%Sells 39%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
4 days agoSell50¢5
4 days agoBuy55¢18
4 days agoBuy55¢55
4 days agoBuy54¢69
4 days agoSell48¢13
4 days agoSell49¢5
4 days agoBuy50¢20
4 days agoBuy51¢26
4 days agoBuy51¢3
4 days agoSell52¢405
4 days agoSell49¢33
4 days agoSell51¢12
4 days agoSell51¢53
4 days agoSell51¢50
4 days agoSell52¢2
4 days agoBuy55¢7
4 days agoSell52¢34
4 days agoBuy53¢50
4 days agoSell53¢50
4 days agoSell52¢48
4 days agoBuy55¢75
4 days agoSell54¢2
5 days agoSell54¢44
5 days agoSell54¢2
5 days agoSell54¢50
5 days agoBuy54¢3
5 days agoBuy55¢51
5 days agoBuy53¢113
5 days agoSell51¢50
5 days agoSell58¢755
5 days agoSell60¢5
5 days agoSell61¢7
5 days agoBuy61¢103
5 days agoSell59¢54
5 days agoSell57¢60
5 days agoBuy63¢20
5 days agoBuy63¢39
5 days agoBuy62¢117
5 days agoSell56¢1
5 days agoSell55¢6
5 days agoBuy59¢406
5 days agoBuy53¢1,569
5 days agoSell55¢24
5 days agoSell49¢7
5 days agoSell49¢7
5 days agoBuy52¢62
5 days agoBuy52¢2
5 days agoBuy52¢2
5 days agoSell50¢2
5 days agoSell50¢2
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Event:
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

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