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Updated 39 min. ago

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?

Tech

12 %

chance

▼ −5.5%1h▼ −57.0%24h▼ −65.5%1W
Yes 12¢No 89¢

Market brief

  • Down 65.5 pp over the past week (−57.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 81% on Nov 5, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 21 buys, 29 sells; the largest was $841 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 15% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 5–15% one day before the end resolved YES (1,886 cases). That is more often than their average price of 10% implied — prices in this range have run low.
  • Scheduled to end in 3 days (Nov 16, 2026).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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✦ AI assessment

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GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

6 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$183.3K

24h vol.

$19.6K

Liquidity

$4.8K

End date

Nov 16, 2026

ends in 3 days

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
  • Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
  • Smart moneyPro+There is a current smart-money reading on this market: how the wallets whose record holds up are positioned.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$49.5K

1m vol.

$183.3K

Bid / Ask

11¢ / 12¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

11¢

Start date

Oct 20, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
11¢$65
9¢$40
8¢$753
7¢$272
6¢$2,316
5¢$1,530
4¢$2,375
3¢$4,225
2¢$6,475
1¢$12,552
Asks (sell)Size
13¢$30
14¢$231
15¢$473
16¢$50
19¢$230
20¢$89
21¢$5
23¢$1,219
24¢$140
25¢$1,194

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 43%Sells 57%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
41 min. agoSell11¢10
42 min. agoBuy12¢10
42 min. agoBuy12¢20
47 min. agoSell12¢15
47 min. agoSell12¢96
47 min. agoSell13¢971
47 min. agoSell12¢6
57 min. agoSell13¢20
57 min. agoSell15¢6
57 min. agoSell17¢50
57 min. agoSell15¢19
1 hr. agoSell16¢11
1 hr. agoBuy19¢15
1 hr. agoSell17¢3
1 hr. agoSell17¢15
1 hr. agoSell18¢15
1 hr. agoSell18¢20
1 hr. agoSell18¢5
1 hr. agoSell18¢5
1 hr. agoSell18¢5
1 hr. agoSell18¢49
1 hr. agoSell18¢200
1 hr. agoBuy20¢20
1 hr. agoBuy18¢200
2 hr. agoBuy19¢13
2 hr. agoBuy19¢51
2 hr. agoBuy18¢82
2 hr. agoBuy17¢5
2 hr. agoBuy17¢52
2 hr. agoSell15¢133
3 hr. agoBuy15¢40
3 hr. agoBuy15¢300
3 hr. agoBuy17¢129
3 hr. agoBuy16¢96
3 hr. agoBuy15¢50
3 hr. agoSell15¢43
4 hr. agoSell18¢5
4 hr. agoBuy19¢5
5 hr. agoBuy19¢33
5 hr. agoSell16¢50
5 hr. agoSell18¢207
5 hr. agoSell18¢122
6 hr. agoSell18¢27
8 hr. agoBuy22¢181
9 hr. agoBuy20¢50
9 hr. agoBuy15¢339
9 hr. agoSell15¢30
9 hr. agoSell17¢30
9 hr. agoBuy13¢11
9 hr. agoSell13¢61
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Event:
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

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