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Updated 12 min. ago
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3 %
chance
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
19 outcomesTotal volume
$5.1M
24h vol.
$86.2K
1w vol.
$589.9K
1m vol.
$2.3M
Liquidity
$211K
Bid / Ask
3¢ / 3¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
3¢
Start date
Sep 22, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 291 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.4%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 0¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 25 |
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 25 |
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 252 |
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 252 |
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 20 |
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 20 |
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 161 |
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 161 |
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 8 |
| 36 min. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 8 |
| 51 min. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 2 |
| 51 min. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 2 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 101 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 101 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 935 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 93 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 400 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 20 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 101 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 30 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 82 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 35 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 66 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 108 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 800 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 800 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 97 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 97 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 10 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 10 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 20 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 20 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 370 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 196 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 175 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 116 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 116 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 88 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 88 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 531 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 531 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 323 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 110 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 213 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 32 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 32 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 258 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 155 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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