← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 38 min. ago
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?
24 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 17.0 pp in the last 24 hours, after dipping to 6% on Nov 1, 2026.
- Historically, 30% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% one day before the end resolved YES (135 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 1 day (Nov 4, 2026).
◆ Your call
What's your number?
Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Elon Musk # tweets November 2 - November 4, 2026?
10 outcomesTotal volume
$16.8K
24h vol.
$14.3K
1w vol.
$16.8K
1m vol.
$16.8K
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
23¢ / 24¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
22¢
Start date
Oct 31, 2026
End date
Nov 4, 2026
ends in 1 day
How reliable is this price range?
Of 135 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% one day before resolution, 29.6% resolved YES. Their average price was 23.7%. With this many cases, the difference could still be chance.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades
Failed to load trades: Upstream request failed (410) for https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x2313d4042fc430054d0035c7d76f86c20642025558ef645f4e20a7f29773b493&limit=50&takerOnly=true
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House6 %▲ +0.0%
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?95 %▲ +0.0%
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?34 %▲ +2.0%
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0 %▲ +0.1%
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?26 %▲ +1.0%
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?23 %▼ −6.0%
Keep exploring
Moving today
Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.