Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?

Market brief

• Down 7.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 31% on Oct 31, 2026.
• Historically, 12% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% one day before the end resolved YES (114 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 1 day (Nov 4, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 114 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% one day before resolution, 12.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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