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Updated 1 mo. ago
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
22 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 7.9 pp over the past week (+1.6 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 4% on Sep 13, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 34 buys, 16 sells; the largest was $58 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 23% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (164 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).
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How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
12 outcomesTotal volume
$550.3K
24h vol.
$37.389
1w vol.
$125.7
1m vol.
$1.1K
Liquidity
$3.2K
Bid / Ask
16¢ / 27¢
Spread 12¢
Last trade
27¢
Start date
Nov 13, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 164 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 23.2% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 8 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 8 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 90 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 10¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 10¢ | 50 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 36 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 10¢ | 36 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 70 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 31 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 39 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 71 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 14 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 27 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 27 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 72 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 72 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 63 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 93 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 14 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 39 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 6 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 0 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 10 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 23 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 13 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 10 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 5 |
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