Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate odds
Live implied probabilities across 12 outcomes · $422.1K traded · updated 4 hr. ago
Resolves Nov 5, 2026
Lula, Eizenkot, Dems leads at 46 % · biggest 24h move: Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems −41.4 pp
#OutcomeChance24hVolume7d
- 1Lula, Eizenkot, Dems46 %▲ +36.0%$28.8K
- 2Lula, Netanyahu, Dems18 %▲ +14.9%$3.1K
- 3Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems12 %▼ −1.0%$14.2K
- 4Lula, Eizenkot, Reps12 %▲ +9.0%$1.4K
- 5Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps12 %▲ +5.0%$10.1K
- 6Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps11 %▲ +3.0%$17.1K
- 7Lula, Netanyahu, Reps4 %▲ +0.3%$1.9K
- 8Lula, Bennett, Dems3 %▲ +2.9%$1.6K
- 9Bolsonaro, Bennett, Dems3 %▼ −2.0%$3.4K
- 10Lula, Bennett, Reps1 %—$586.714
- 11Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems0 %▼ −41.4%$339.2K
- 12Bolsonaro, Bennett, Reps0 %▼ −0.3%$721.678
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See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate?
- Lula, Eizenkot, Dems is the current favourite at 46 %, ahead of 11 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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