Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Market brief

• Up 37.8 pp over the past week (+36.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 6% on Oct 6, 2026.
• Last 10 trades: 10 buys, 0 sells; the largest was $150 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 48% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (9,654 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 1 wk. (Nov 5, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 9,654 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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