Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?

Market brief

• Up 11.1 pp over the past week (+9.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 24% on Oct 5, 2026.
• Last 10 trades: 10 buys, 0 sells; the largest was $36 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 10% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (243 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 1 wk. (Nov 5, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 243 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.4%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.

• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?96 %▲ +0.0%
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?9 %▲ +0.0%
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?28 %▲ +0.0%
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?86 %▲ +3.0%
• Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?26 %▼ −3.0%
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?4 %▼ −0.3%

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