Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Market brief

• Down 35.4 pp over the past week (−41.4 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 43% on Oct 25, 2026.
• Last 50 trades: 15 buys, 35 sells; the largest was $859 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (462 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 1 wk. (Nov 5, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 462 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.9% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
• Smart moneyPro+There is a current smart-money reading on this market: how the wallets whose record holds up are positioned.

Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.

• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?96 %▲ +0.0%
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?9 %▲ +0.0%
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?28 %▲ +0.0%
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?86 %▲ +3.0%
• Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?26 %▼ −3.0%
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?4 %▼ −0.3%

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