← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 3 wk. ago
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
3 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 4.6 pp over the past week (−2.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 39% on Oct 5, 2026.
- Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (462 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 1 wk. (Nov 5, 2026).
◆ Your call
What's your number?
Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
12 outcomes- Lula, Eizenkot, Dems46 %
- Lula, Netanyahu, Dems18 %
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems12 %
- Lula, Eizenkot, Reps12 %
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps12 %
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps11 %
- Lula, Netanyahu, Reps4 %
- Lula, Bennett, Dems3 %
- Bolsonaro, Bennett, Dems3 %
- Lula, Bennett, Reps1 %
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems0 %
- Bolsonaro, Bennett, Reps0 %
Total volume
$3.4K
24h vol.
$467.968
1w vol.
$2.8K
1m vol.
$3.4K
Liquidity
$13.9K
Bid / Ask
1¢ / 5¢
Spread 4¢
Last trade
2¢
Start date
Oct 5, 2026
End date
Nov 5, 2026
ends in 1 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 462 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.9% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 5¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (6)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 19 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 19 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 4 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 4 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 5 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 5 |
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?96 %▲ +0.0%
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?9 %▲ +0.0%
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?28 %▲ +0.0%
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?86 %▲ +3.0%
- Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?26 %▼ −3.0%
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?4 %▼ −0.3%
Keep exploring
Moving today
Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.