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Updated 3 wk. ago
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?
12 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 5.0 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 35% on Oct 5, 2026.
- Last 13 trades: 9 buys, 4 sells; the largest was $17 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 10% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (243 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 1 wk. (Nov 5, 2026).
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Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
12 outcomes- Lula, Eizenkot, Dems46 %
- Lula, Netanyahu, Dems18 %
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems12 %
- Lula, Eizenkot, Reps12 %
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps12 %
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps11 %
- Lula, Netanyahu, Reps4 %
- Lula, Bennett, Dems3 %
- Bolsonaro, Bennett, Dems3 %
- Lula, Bennett, Reps1 %
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems0 %
- Bolsonaro, Bennett, Reps0 %
Total volume
$10.1K
24h vol.
$3.3K
1w vol.
$4.1K
1m vol.
$10.1K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
10¢ / 13¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
12¢
Start date
Oct 5, 2026
End date
Nov 5, 2026
ends in 1 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 243 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.4%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (13)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 19 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 19 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 90¢ | 19 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 19 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 19 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 11 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 8 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 79¢ | 4 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 79¢ | 4 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 79¢ | 5 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 79¢ | 5 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 79¢ | 20 |
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- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?86 %▲ +3.0%
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