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Updated 3 wk. ago
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
18 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 13.4 pp over the past week (+14.9 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 6% on Oct 6, 2026.
- Historically, 22% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (157 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 1 wk. (Nov 5, 2026).
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Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
12 outcomes- Lula, Eizenkot, Dems46 %
- Lula, Netanyahu, Dems18 %
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems12 %
- Lula, Eizenkot, Reps12 %
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps12 %
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps11 %
- Lula, Netanyahu, Reps4 %
- Lula, Bennett, Dems3 %
- Bolsonaro, Bennett, Dems3 %
- Lula, Bennett, Reps1 %
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems0 %
- Bolsonaro, Bennett, Reps0 %
Total volume
$3.1K
24h vol.
$192.756
1w vol.
$1.7K
1m vol.
$3.1K
Liquidity
$16.6K
Bid / Ask
16¢ / 19¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
21¢
Start date
Oct 5, 2026
End date
Nov 5, 2026
ends in 1 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 157 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 21.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 6¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (8)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 61 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 90¢ | 61 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 19 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 19 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 4 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 4 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 5 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 5 |
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- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?9 %▲ +0.0%
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- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?86 %▲ +3.0%
- Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?26 %▼ −3.0%
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?4 %▼ −0.3%
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