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Updated 2 mo. ago

Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?

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93 %

chance

▲ +0.4%24h▼ −3.1%1W
Yes 93¢No 7¢

Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?

10 outcomes

Total volume

$273.5K

24h vol.

$251.075

1w vol.

$2.7K

1m vol.

$14.7K

Liquidity

$31.9K

Bid / Ask

93¢ / 94¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

93¢

Start date

Feb 8, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2028

ends in 1 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 515 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 85–95% seven days before resolution, 88.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 90.1%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
82¢$14
81¢$211
80¢$5
79¢$55
78¢$5
77¢$50
69¢$75
65¢$116
62¢$5
61¢$200
Asks (sell)Size
83¢$1
84¢$1,185
86¢$135
87¢$828
88¢$1,030
89¢$3,310
90¢$2,130
91¢$1,719
92¢$1,200
93¢$286

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✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 26%Sells 74%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 mo. agoSell17¢9
2 mo. agoSell83¢9
2 mo. agoSell18¢5
2 mo. agoSell82¢5
2 mo. agoBuy19¢5
2 mo. agoBuy81¢5
2 mo. agoBuy79¢467
2 mo. agoBuy20¢5
2 mo. agoBuy20¢6
2 mo. agoBuy20¢141
2 mo. agoBuy20¢50
2 mo. agoBuy22¢50
2 mo. agoSell78¢163
2 mo. agoBuy23¢52
2 mo. agoSell23¢29
2 mo. agoBuy23¢9
2 mo. agoBuy23¢20
2 mo. agoBuy76¢19
2 mo. agoBuy24¢14
2 mo. agoBuy24¢5
2 mo. agoBuy85¢29
2 mo. agoBuy15¢29
2 mo. agoSell67¢1,919
2 mo. agoBuy61¢39
2 mo. agoSell38¢500
2 mo. agoSell35¢27
2 mo. agoSell31¢1,289
2 mo. agoBuy70¢63
2 mo. agoSell69¢1,919
2 mo. agoSell31¢1,798
2 mo. agoBuy76¢121
2 mo. agoSell78¢1,706
2 mo. agoBuy77¢397
2 mo. agoSell23¢7
2 mo. agoBuy78¢1,000
2 mo. agoBuy79¢5
2 mo. agoBuy79¢5
2 mo. agoBuy79¢10
2 mo. agoBuy80¢163
2 mo. agoBuy81¢50
2 mo. agoSell19¢49
2 mo. agoBuy85¢20
2 mo. agoSell77¢1,279
2 mo. agoBuy76¢559
2 mo. agoSell24¢88
2 mo. agoBuy77¢603
2 mo. agoSell22¢29
2 mo. agoSell86¢250
2 mo. agoSell14¢30
2 mo. agoSell14¢100

◆ Smart money

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