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Updated 2 wk. ago

Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?
27 %
chance
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
10 outcomesTotal volume
$407.8K
24h vol.
$4.2K
1w vol.
$31.6K
1m vol.
$219.5K
Liquidity
$54.3K
Bid / Ask
26¢ / 29¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
29¢
Start date
Dec 12, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2028
ends in 1 yr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 220 resolved Polymarket Crypto markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 23.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 28¢ | 477 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 28¢ | 177 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 28¢ | 300 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 28¢ | 30 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 28¢ | 30 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 71¢ | 100 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 28¢ | 70 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 29¢ | 30 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 29¢ | 392 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 29¢ | 100 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 29¢ | 193 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 29¢ | 99 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 70¢ | 416 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 70¢ | 413 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 30¢ | 3 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 70¢ | 10 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 30¢ | 10 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 70¢ | 17 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 30¢ | 17 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 28¢ | 99 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 72¢ | 9 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 28¢ | 30 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 72¢ | 60 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 28¢ | 10 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 72¢ | 10 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 28¢ | 194 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 28¢ | 194 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 30¢ | 35 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 30¢ | 35 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 30¢ | 16 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 30¢ | 16 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 30¢ | 10 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 70¢ | 10 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 30¢ | 35 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 30¢ | 35 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 70¢ | 100 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 30¢ | 65 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 70¢ | 30 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 70¢ | 5 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 70¢ | 220 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 30¢ | 24 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 70¢ | 156 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 70¢ | 30 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 70¢ | 10 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 29¢ | 1,188 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 70¢ | 9 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 70¢ | 220 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 71¢ | 100 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 71¢ | 11 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 30¢ | 518 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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