Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?

Market brief

• Down 26.0 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 79% on Oct 21, 2026.
• Last 17 trades: 7 buys, 10 sells; the largest was $28 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 30% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (3,556 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 1 wk. (Oct 31, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 3,556 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 30.1% resolved YES. That is 4.6 points more often than their average price of 25.6% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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