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Updated 1 wk. ago
Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
97 %
chance
Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
19 outcomes- Harry Kane97 %
- Lamine Yamal92 %
- Kylian Mbappé79 %
- Lionel Messi21 %
- Rodri11 %
- Ousmane Dembélé5 %
- Michael Olise5 %
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia5 %
- Fabian Ruiz5 %
- Erling Haaland3 %
- Vitinha3 %
- Achraf Hakimi2 %
- Jude Bellingham2 %
- Lautaro Martinez2 %
- Luis Diaz1 %
- Vinícius Júnior1 %
- Pau Cubarsi1 %
- Declan Rice1 %
- Bruno Fernandes1 %
Total volume
$139.3K
24h vol.
$3.6K
1w vol.
$21.5K
1m vol.
$116.8K
Liquidity
$32.1K
Bid / Ask
97¢ / 98¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
98¢
Start date
Aug 7, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 178 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 95–100% seven days before resolution, 96.1% resolved YES. Their average price was 98.4%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 28 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 28 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 25 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 25 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 20 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 20 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 446 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 115 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 117 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 114 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 100 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 60 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 60 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 402 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 136 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 112 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 133 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 21 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 40 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 26 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 14 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 6 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 6 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 25 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 25 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 96¢ | 45 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 45 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 75 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 14 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 43 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 18 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 14 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 14 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 1 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 1 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 7 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 7 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 5 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 5 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 5 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 5 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 45 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 45 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 12,499 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 9,146 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 1,000 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 291 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 1,546 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 515 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 7,519 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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Smart money is a Pro+ feature
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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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