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Updated 2 wk. ago
Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
5 %
chance
Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
19 outcomes- Harry Kane97 %
- Lamine Yamal92 %
- Kylian Mbappé79 %
- Lionel Messi21 %
- Rodri11 %
- Ousmane Dembélé5 %
- Michael Olise5 %
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia5 %
- Fabian Ruiz5 %
- Erling Haaland3 %
- Vitinha3 %
- Achraf Hakimi2 %
- Jude Bellingham2 %
- Lautaro Martinez2 %
- Luis Diaz1 %
- Vinícius Júnior1 %
- Pau Cubarsi1 %
- Declan Rice1 %
- Bruno Fernandes1 %
Total volume
$46.3K
24h vol.
$192.98
1w vol.
$13.2K
1m vol.
$45K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
4¢ / 6¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
4¢
Start date
Aug 7, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 291 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.4%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 21 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 21 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 1,006 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 92¢ | 22 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 825 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 139 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 175 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 22 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 87 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 6 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 2 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 2 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 2 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 12 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 6 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 134 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 31 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 63 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 100 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 100 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 3,931 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 44 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 1,000 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 1,000 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 80 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 780 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 37 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 100 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 850 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 22 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 22 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 150 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 150 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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