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Updated 4 wk. ago
Will Vinícius Júnior finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1 %
chance
Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
19 outcomes- Harry Kane97 %
- Lamine Yamal92 %
- Kylian Mbappé79 %
- Lionel Messi21 %
- Rodri11 %
- Ousmane Dembélé5 %
- Michael Olise5 %
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia5 %
- Fabian Ruiz5 %
- Erling Haaland3 %
- Vitinha3 %
- Achraf Hakimi2 %
- Jude Bellingham2 %
- Lautaro Martinez2 %
- Luis Diaz1 %
- Vinícius Júnior1 %
- Pau Cubarsi1 %
- Declan Rice1 %
- Bruno Fernandes1 %
Total volume
$432.17
24h vol.
$11.99
1w vol.
$11.99
1m vol.
$11.99
Liquidity
$247.334
Bid / Ask
0¢ / 3¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
0¢
Start date
Aug 7, 2026
End date
Oct 26, 2026
ends in 1 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 400 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (19)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 12 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 12 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 12 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 12 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 38 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 21 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 17 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 100 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 30 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 100 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 100 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 100 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 100 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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Smart money is a Pro+ feature
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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