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Updated 3 wk. ago

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 21, 2026?

Politics
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96 %

chance

▲ +5.0%1h▲ +3.5%24h▲ +13.7%1W
Yes 96¢No 4¢

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

13 outcomes

Total volume

$853.944

24h vol.

$107.61

1w vol.

$515.165

1m vol.

$853.944

Liquidity

$726.095

Bid / Ask

94¢ / 98¢

Spread 4¢

Last trade

96¢

Start date

Oct 1, 2026

End date

Oct 22, 2026

ends in 3 days

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,121 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 95–100% one day before resolution, 98.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 98.8%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
91¢$188
90¢$141
85¢$300
84¢$20
5¢$9
4¢$15
3¢$10
2¢$95
1¢$432
Asks (sell)Size
92¢$467
93¢$100
94¢$300
95¢$20
96¢$13
97¢$75
98¢$401
99¢$423

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (26)

Buys 79%Sells 21%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
3 wk. agoSell8¢4
3 wk. agoBuy8¢4
3 wk. agoBuy10¢10
3 wk. agoSell10¢10
3 wk. agoBuy10¢20
3 wk. agoSell10¢10
3 wk. agoSell10¢10
3 wk. agoBuy10¢10
3 wk. agoSell10¢10
3 wk. agoSell90¢20
3 wk. agoBuy90¢20
3 wk. agoBuy9¢110
3 wk. agoBuy90¢10
3 wk. agoBuy91¢20
3 wk. agoSell9¢20
3 wk. agoSell9¢60
3 wk. agoBuy91¢5
3 wk. agoBuy9¢5
3 wk. agoBuy87¢140
3 wk. agoBuy12¢20
3 wk. agoBuy13¢60
3 wk. agoBuy13¢20
3 wk. agoBuy13¢20
3 wk. agoBuy13¢20
3 wk. agoBuy92¢20
3 wk. agoBuy8¢20

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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Smart money is a Pro+ feature

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◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

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