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Updated 3 wk. ago
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 22, 2026?
97 %
chance
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
13 outcomesTotal volume
$805.08
24h vol.
$20
1w vol.
$40
1m vol.
$156.972
Liquidity
$462.883
Bid / Ask
96¢ / 98¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
97¢
Start date
Oct 1, 2026
End date
Oct 23, 2026
ends in 3 days
How reliable is this price range?
Of 1,121 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 95–100% one day before resolution, 98.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 98.8%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 9¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (19)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 0 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 0 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 61 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 0 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 84¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 84¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 84¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 1 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 36 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 16 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 90¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 10¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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