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Updated 18 min. ago

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Politics
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44 %

chance

▼ −3.3%24h▼ −4.5%1W
Yes 44¢No 56¢

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

43 outcomes
See all 43 outcomes

Total volume

$16M

24h vol.

$42.8K

1w vol.

$160.9K

1m vol.

$292.9K

Liquidity

$354.5K

Bid / Ask

44¢ / 44¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

44¢

Start date

Jul 11, 2025

End date

Nov 8, 2028

ends in 2 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 8,884 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 0¢
Bids (buy)Size
44¢$9,447
44¢$200
44¢$73,384
44¢$1,059
44¢$1,176
43¢$360
43¢$2,000
43¢$555
43¢$4,588
42¢$10,365
Asks (sell)Size
44¢$12,681
44¢$478
44¢$372
44¢$536
45¢$483
45¢$13,043
45¢$249
45¢$507
45¢$20
45¢$1,363

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 54%Sells 46%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 hr. agoBuy44¢437
1 hr. agoSell44¢185
1 hr. agoSell44¢252
1 hr. agoBuy44¢173
1 hr. agoSell44¢173
4 hr. agoBuy44¢168
4 hr. agoSell44¢168
4 hr. agoSell44¢2
4 hr. agoSell56¢2
4 hr. agoBuy44¢2
4 hr. agoSell44¢2
4 hr. agoSell44¢2
4 hr. agoSell56¢2
4 hr. agoBuy44¢2
4 hr. agoSell44¢2
4 hr. agoBuy44¢100
4 hr. agoSell44¢100
4 hr. agoSell56¢33
4 hr. agoSell44¢33
4 hr. agoBuy44¢5
4 hr. agoSell44¢5
4 hr. agoBuy44¢5
4 hr. agoSell44¢5
4 hr. agoBuy44¢900
4 hr. agoSell44¢332
4 hr. agoSell44¢102
4 hr. agoBuy56¢466
4 hr. agoBuy44¢100
4 hr. agoBuy56¢3
4 hr. agoSell44¢97
4 hr. agoBuy44¢98
4 hr. agoSell44¢98
4 hr. agoBuy44¢2
4 hr. agoSell44¢2
5 hr. agoSell56¢102
5 hr. agoSell44¢2
5 hr. agoBuy56¢100
6 hr. agoSell56¢30
6 hr. agoBuy56¢30
6 hr. agoSell44¢30
6 hr. agoBuy44¢30
6 hr. agoSell54¢70
6 hr. agoSell46¢40
6 hr. agoBuy54¢30
6 hr. agoSell44¢660
6 hr. agoBuy44¢660
6 hr. agoSell44¢237
6 hr. agoBuy44¢207
6 hr. agoBuy44¢30
6 hr. agoSell44¢200

◆ Smart money

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Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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