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Updated 14 min. ago

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Politics
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44 %

chance

▼ −3.3%24h▼ −4.5%1W
Yes 44¢No 56¢

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

43 outcomes
See all 43 outcomes

Total volume

$16M

24h vol.

$51.2K

1w vol.

$169.3K

1m vol.

$301.2K

Liquidity

$362.9K

Bid / Ask

44¢ / 44¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

44¢

Start date

Jul 11, 2025

End date

Nov 8, 2028

ends in 2 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 8,884 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 0¢
Bids (buy)Size
44¢$283
44¢$78,727
44¢$1,259
44¢$1,176
43¢$3,456
43¢$580
43¢$200
43¢$555
43¢$3,148
42¢$10,365
Asks (sell)Size
44¢$12,017
44¢$487
44¢$361
44¢$211
44¢$542
45¢$483
45¢$6,521
45¢$469
45¢$20
45¢$1,305

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 8%Sells 92%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
38 min. agoBuy56¢29
38 min. agoBuy44¢29
48 min. agoBuy44¢5
48 min. agoSell44¢5
53 min. agoSell44¢59
53 min. agoSell56¢59
1 hr. agoSell56¢11
1 hr. agoSell44¢11
1 hr. agoBuy56¢9
1 hr. agoBuy44¢9
1 hr. agoSell56¢54
1 hr. agoSell44¢54
1 hr. agoSell56¢420
1 hr. agoSell44¢420
1 hr. agoBuy56¢2
1 hr. agoBuy44¢2
1 hr. agoSell56¢420
1 hr. agoSell44¢420
1 hr. agoSell56¢2
1 hr. agoSell44¢2
1 hr. agoSell56¢240
1 hr. agoSell44¢240
1 hr. agoSell56¢47
1 hr. agoSell44¢47
1 hr. agoSell56¢4
1 hr. agoSell44¢4
1 hr. agoSell56¢399
1 hr. agoSell44¢399
1 hr. agoSell44¢6,521
1 hr. agoBuy44¢163
1 hr. agoBuy44¢59
1 hr. agoSell56¢5,491
1 hr. agoSell56¢469
1 hr. agoSell56¢333
1 hr. agoSell56¢6
1 hr. agoBuy56¢163
1 hr. agoBuy44¢163
2 hr. agoBuy44¢437
2 hr. agoSell44¢185
2 hr. agoSell44¢252
2 hr. agoBuy44¢173
2 hr. agoSell44¢173
5 hr. agoBuy44¢168
5 hr. agoSell44¢168
5 hr. agoSell44¢2
5 hr. agoSell56¢2
5 hr. agoBuy44¢2
5 hr. agoSell44¢2
5 hr. agoSell44¢2
5 hr. agoSell56¢2

◆ Smart money

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Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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