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Updated 1 mo. ago
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3 %
chance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
43 outcomes- J.D. Vance44 %
- Marco Rubio14 %
- Ron DeSantis4 %
- Tucker Carlson3 %
- Ted Cruz2 %
- Donald Trump2 %
- Donald Trump Jr.2 %
- Ivanka Trump1 %
- Thomas Massie1 %
- Brian Kemp1 %
- Tulsi Gabbard0 %
- Pete Hegseth0 %
- Marjorie Taylor Greene0 %
- Tom Cotton0 %
- Josh Hawley0 %
- Glenn Youngkin0 %
- Rand Paul0 %
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.0 %
- Katie Britt0 %
- Vivek Ramaswamy0 %
- Candace Owens0 %
- Steve Bannon0 %
- Eric Trump0 %
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders0 %
- Byron Donalds0 %
- John McEntee0 %
- Elon Musk0 %
- Elise Stefanik0 %
- Nikki Haley0 %
- John N. Kennedy0 %
- Mike Pence0 %
- Kristi Noem0 %
- Joe Kent0 %
- Greg Abbott0 %
- Kim Kardashian0 %
- Doug Burgum0 %
- Tim Scott0 %
- John Thune0 %
- Mike Johnson0 %
- Erika Kirk0 %
- Tom Brady0 %
- Rick Scott0 %
- Matt Gaetz0 %
Total volume
$13.9M
24h vol.
$7.5K
1w vol.
$31.6K
1m vol.
$115K
Liquidity
$264.5K
Bid / Ask
3¢ / 3¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
3¢
Start date
Jul 11, 2025
End date
Nov 8, 2028
ends in 2 yr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 0¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 1,996 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 100 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 51 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 1,845 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 258 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 258 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 283 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 283 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 5,000 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 5,000 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 5 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.