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Updated 5 days ago

Will Julianne Moore be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
96 %
chance
Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
26 outcomes- Julianne Moore96 %
- Inde Navarrette87 %
- Olivia Wilde72 %
- Sandra Hüller59 %
- Virginie Efira54 %
- Ruth Madeley47 %
- Renate Reinsve36 %
- Sophie Okonedo15 %
- Rosalind Eleazar14 %
- Michelle Monaghan10 %
- Mikey Madison7 %
- Daisy Edgar-Jones7 %
- Dakota Johnson7 %
- Laura Linney7 %
- Natalie Portman6 %
- Emily Blunt6 %
- Cynthia Erivo6 %
- Lily Gladstone6 %
- Joan Collins6 %
- Zendaya5 %
- Anne Hathaway4 %
- Penélope Cruz4 %
- Michelle Williams4 %
- Scarlett Johansson4 %
- Kirsten Dunst2 %
- Shailene Woodley1 %
Total volume
$2.2K
24h vol.
$1.2K
1w vol.
$2.2K
1m vol.
$2.2K
Liquidity
$2.2K
Bid / Ask
95¢ / 96¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
95¢
Start date
Oct 14, 2026
End date
Mar 15, 2027
ends in 5 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 287 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 95–100% seven days before resolution, 97.6% resolved YES. Their average price was 98.1%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (27)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days ago | Sell | 8¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 91 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 11¢ | 91 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 85¢ | 280 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 13¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 87¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 16¢ | 200 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 16¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 84¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 85¢ | 100 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 87¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 85¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 85¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 85¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 85¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 105 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 85¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 85¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 86¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 86¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 86¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 14¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 4¢ | 5 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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