← Dashboard · Culture

Updated 4 days ago

Will Penélope Cruz be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?

Other

4 %

chance

▼ −0.1%24h

Yes 4¢No 96¢

Total volume

$568.23

24h vol.

$20

1w vol.

$70

1m vol.

$70

Liquidity

$77.524

Bid / Ask

2¢ / 6¢

Spread 4¢

Last trade

2¢

Start date

Oct 14, 2026

End date

Mar 15, 2027

ends in 5 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 400 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 6¢

Bids (buy)Size

0¢$174

0¢$722

0¢$262

Asks (sell)Size

6¢$20

8¢$20

99¢$9

99¢$10

99¢$56

99¢$63

100¢$40

100¢$125

100¢$512

100¢$765

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (26)

Buys 77%Sells 23%

Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
Time	Side	Price	Size
5 days ago	Sell	98¢	103
5 days ago	Sell	2¢	35
5 days ago	Sell	2¢	40
5 days ago	Sell	2¢	28
5 days ago	Sell	2¢	20
5 days ago	Buy	2¢	20
5 days ago	Sell	1¢	20
5 days ago	Buy	1¢	2
5 days ago	Buy	1¢	8
5 days ago	Buy	1¢	10
5 days ago	Buy	92¢	270
5 days ago	Buy	8¢	20
5 days ago	Buy	8¢	20
5 days ago	Buy	8¢	60
5 days ago	Buy	8¢	100
5 days ago	Buy	8¢	50
5 days ago	Buy	8¢	20
5 days ago	Buy	96¢	55
5 days ago	Buy	2¢	7
5 days ago	Buy	2¢	17
5 days ago	Buy	3¢	11
5 days ago	Buy	6¢	20
5 days ago	Buy	93¢	20
5 days ago	Buy	7¢	20
5 days ago	Buy	93¢	50
5 days ago	Buy	7¢	50

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.

Smart money is a Pro+ feature

See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.