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Updated 4 days ago
Will Natalie Portman be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 %
chance
Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
26 outcomes- Julianne Moore96 %
- Inde Navarrette87 %
- Olivia Wilde72 %
- Sandra Hüller59 %
- Virginie Efira54 %
- Ruth Madeley47 %
- Renate Reinsve36 %
- Sophie Okonedo15 %
- Rosalind Eleazar14 %
- Michelle Monaghan10 %
- Mikey Madison7 %
- Daisy Edgar-Jones7 %
- Dakota Johnson7 %
- Laura Linney7 %
- Natalie Portman6 %
- Emily Blunt6 %
- Cynthia Erivo6 %
- Lily Gladstone6 %
- Joan Collins6 %
- Zendaya5 %
- Anne Hathaway4 %
- Penélope Cruz4 %
- Michelle Williams4 %
- Scarlett Johansson4 %
- Kirsten Dunst2 %
- Shailene Woodley1 %
Total volume
$813.407
24h vol.
$24.47
1w vol.
$813.407
1m vol.
$813.407
Liquidity
$926.683
Bid / Ask
5¢ / 8¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
8¢
Start date
Oct 14, 2026
End date
Mar 15, 2027
ends in 5 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 221 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 16.7% resolved YES. That is 7.1 points more often than their average price of 9.6% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 0¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (18)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 2¢ | 2 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 11 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 7 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 91¢ | 303 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 8¢ | 22 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 8¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 9¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 9¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 9¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 9¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 9¢ | 100 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 9¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Culture markets from other events.