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Updated 5 days ago
Will Michelle Williams be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
4 %
chance
Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
26 outcomes- Julianne Moore96 %
- Inde Navarrette87 %
- Olivia Wilde72 %
- Sandra Hüller59 %
- Virginie Efira54 %
- Ruth Madeley47 %
- Renate Reinsve36 %
- Sophie Okonedo15 %
- Rosalind Eleazar14 %
- Michelle Monaghan10 %
- Mikey Madison7 %
- Daisy Edgar-Jones7 %
- Dakota Johnson7 %
- Laura Linney7 %
- Natalie Portman6 %
- Emily Blunt6 %
- Cynthia Erivo6 %
- Lily Gladstone6 %
- Joan Collins6 %
- Zendaya5 %
- Anne Hathaway4 %
- Penélope Cruz4 %
- Michelle Williams4 %
- Scarlett Johansson4 %
- Kirsten Dunst2 %
- Shailene Woodley1 %
Total volume
$620.951
24h vol.
$26.66
1w vol.
$620.951
1m vol.
$620.951
Liquidity
$185.31
Bid / Ask
2¢ / 6¢
Spread 4¢
Last trade
2¢
Start date
Oct 14, 2026
End date
Mar 15, 2027
ends in 5 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 400 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (38)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 98¢ | 14 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 2¢ | 6 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 6¢ | 23 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 7¢ | 16 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 4¢ | 7 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 98¢ | 55 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 98¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 98¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 14 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 31 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 2 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 7 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 12 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 4¢ | 31 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 4¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 23 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 2¢ | 2 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 86¢ | 353 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 13¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 13¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 13¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 23 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 100 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 14¢ | 50 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 84¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 16¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 84¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 16¢ | 10 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Culture markets from other events.