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Updated 21 hr. ago
Will Lily Gladstone be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 %
chance
Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
26 outcomes- Julianne Moore96 %
- Inde Navarrette87 %
- Olivia Wilde72 %
- Sandra Hüller59 %
- Virginie Efira54 %
- Ruth Madeley47 %
- Renate Reinsve36 %
- Sophie Okonedo15 %
- Rosalind Eleazar14 %
- Michelle Monaghan10 %
- Mikey Madison7 %
- Daisy Edgar-Jones7 %
- Dakota Johnson7 %
- Laura Linney7 %
- Natalie Portman6 %
- Emily Blunt6 %
- Cynthia Erivo6 %
- Lily Gladstone6 %
- Joan Collins6 %
- Zendaya5 %
- Anne Hathaway4 %
- Penélope Cruz4 %
- Michelle Williams4 %
- Scarlett Johansson4 %
- Kirsten Dunst2 %
- Shailene Woodley1 %
Total volume
$386.9
24h vol.
$386.9
1w vol.
$386.9
1m vol.
$386.9
Liquidity
$1.6K
Bid / Ask
4¢ / 7¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
6¢
Start date
Oct 14, 2026
End date
Mar 15, 2027
ends in 5 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 221 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 16.7% resolved YES. That is 7.1 points more often than their average price of 9.6% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (15)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day ago | Sell | 6¢ | 50 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 6¢ | 50 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 90¢ | 100 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 10¢ | 50 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 10¢ | 50 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 85¢ | 1 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 85¢ | 1 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 11¢ | 43 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 11¢ | 43 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 88¢ | 143 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 12¢ | 93 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 12¢ | 50 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 88¢ | 51 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 12¢ | 43 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 12¢ | 7 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
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◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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