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Updated 4 days ago
Will Ruth Madeley be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
47 %
chance
Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
26 outcomes- Julianne Moore96 %
- Inde Navarrette87 %
- Olivia Wilde72 %
- Sandra Hüller59 %
- Virginie Efira54 %
- Ruth Madeley47 %
- Renate Reinsve36 %
- Sophie Okonedo15 %
- Rosalind Eleazar14 %
- Michelle Monaghan10 %
- Mikey Madison7 %
- Daisy Edgar-Jones7 %
- Dakota Johnson7 %
- Laura Linney7 %
- Natalie Portman6 %
- Emily Blunt6 %
- Cynthia Erivo6 %
- Lily Gladstone6 %
- Joan Collins6 %
- Zendaya5 %
- Anne Hathaway4 %
- Penélope Cruz4 %
- Michelle Williams4 %
- Scarlett Johansson4 %
- Kirsten Dunst2 %
- Shailene Woodley1 %
Total volume
$690.3
24h vol.
$108.75
1w vol.
$690.3
1m vol.
$690.3
Liquidity
$514.578
Bid / Ask
42¢ / 52¢
Spread 10¢
Last trade
42¢
Start date
Oct 14, 2026
End date
Mar 15, 2027
ends in 5 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 113 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 35.4% resolved YES. That is 10.0 points less often than their average price of 45.4% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (30)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days ago | Sell | 33¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 33¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 67¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 33¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 35¢ | 41 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 35¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 35¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 60¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 60 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 60¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 33¢ | 132 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 64¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 67¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 33¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 68¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 69¢ | 22 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 69¢ | 30 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 25¢ | 60 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 75¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 75¢ | 40 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 80¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 20¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 61¢ | 80 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 39¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 39¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 39¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 39¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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Smart money is a Pro+ feature
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◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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