← Dashboard · Culture
Updated 5 days ago
Will "Wild Horse Nine" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?
92 %
chance
Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations
18 outcomes- Wild Horse Nine92 %
- The Debut89 %
- Club Kid63 %
- Obsession57 %
- Fjord40 %
- Behemoth!22 %
- Elsinore22 %
- Digger18 %
- The Drama15 %
- Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma13 %
- Josephine12 %
- The Invite4 %
- A Place in Hell4 %
- The Odyssey4 %
- Fatherland3 %
- Forgotten Island3 %
- The Black Ball1 %
- The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth1 %
Total volume
$756.396
24h vol.
$50
1w vol.
$655.356
1m vol.
$655.356
Liquidity
$560.698
Bid / Ask
91¢ / 92¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
91¢
Start date
Oct 14, 2026
End date
Mar 15, 2027
ends in 5 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 515 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 85–95% seven days before resolution, 88.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 90.1%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (29)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days ago | Sell | 90¢ | 240 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 50 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 11¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 90¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 10¢ | 40 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 9¢ | 60 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 92¢ | 50 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 10¢ | 41 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 10¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 89¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 88¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 82¢ | 343 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 17¢ | 22 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 17¢ | 100 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 18¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 18¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 18¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 18¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 18¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 82¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 18¢ | 60 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 19¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 19¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 88¢ | 1 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 1 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 16¢ | 40 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 84¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 84¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Culture markets from other events.