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Updated 5 days ago

Will "Obsession" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?

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57 %

chance

▲ +23.5%1h▼ −0.5%24h
Yes 57¢No 43¢

Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

18 outcomes

Total volume

$546.681

24h vol.

$97.63

1w vol.

$476.661

1m vol.

$476.661

Liquidity

$1.6K

Bid / Ask

48¢ / 66¢

Spread 18¢

Last trade

55¢

Start date

Oct 14, 2026

End date

Mar 15, 2027

ends in 5 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 113 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 35.4% resolved YES. That is 10.0 points less often than their average price of 45.4% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
45¢$140
44¢$127
43¢$20
41¢$20
38¢$20
3¢$10
2¢$15
1¢$58
Asks (sell)Size
47¢$90
48¢$88
49¢$100
50¢$93
95¢$12
96¢$14
98¢$5
99¢$17

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

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Recent trades (23)

Buys 94%Sells 6%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
5 days agoSell53¢20
5 days agoBuy53¢20
5 days agoBuy48¢10
5 days agoSell48¢10
5 days agoBuy38¢20
5 days agoBuy62¢20
5 days agoBuy39¢20
5 days agoBuy61¢20
5 days agoBuy38¢20
5 days agoBuy62¢20
5 days agoBuy37¢93
5 days agoBuy63¢20
5 days agoBuy63¢30
5 days agoBuy63¢20
5 days agoBuy63¢23
5 days agoBuy37¢12
5 days agoBuy63¢12
5 days agoBuy37¢23
5 days agoBuy63¢23
5 days agoBuy37¢22
5 days agoBuy63¢22
5 days agoBuy57¢20
5 days agoBuy43¢20

◆ Smart money

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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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Related markets

The most-traded open Culture markets from other events.