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Updated 5 days ago

Will "Fjord" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?

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40 %

chance

▲ +6.0%1h▼ −11.5%24h
Yes 40¢No 60¢

Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

18 outcomes

Total volume

$449.69

24h vol.

$100

1w vol.

$190.02

1m vol.

$190.02

Liquidity

$731.856

Bid / Ask

37¢ / 43¢

Spread 6¢

Last trade

16¢

Start date

Oct 14, 2026

End date

Mar 15, 2027

ends in 5 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 113 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 35.4% resolved YES. That is 10.0 points less often than their average price of 45.4% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
44¢$404
43¢$124
42¢$192
41¢$20
3¢$23
2¢$47
1¢$10
Asks (sell)Size
45¢$210
46¢$160
47¢$45
48¢$60
52¢$20
97¢$23
98¢$47
99¢$10

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

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Recent trades (20)

Buys 88%Sells 12%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
5 days agoSell55¢20
5 days agoBuy55¢20
5 days agoSell55¢20
5 days agoBuy55¢20
5 days agoBuy42¢20
5 days agoBuy58¢20
5 days agoBuy39¢12
5 days agoBuy61¢10
5 days agoBuy61¢2
5 days agoBuy39¢12
5 days agoBuy61¢12
5 days agoBuy39¢13
5 days agoBuy61¢13
5 days agoBuy39¢16
5 days agoBuy61¢16
5 days agoBuy39¢17
5 days agoBuy61¢17
5 days agoBuy50¢40
5 days agoBuy50¢20
5 days agoBuy50¢20

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

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