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Updated 5 days ago

Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?

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22 %

chance

▼ −1.5%1h▲ +2.5%24h
Yes 22¢No 78¢

Total volume

$479.03

24h vol.

$209.02

1w vol.

$479.03

1m vol.

$479.03

Liquidity

$711.444

Bid / Ask

21¢ / 23¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

22¢

Start date

Oct 14, 2026

End date

Mar 15, 2027

ends in 5 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 154 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.1% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
22¢$120
21¢$114
20¢$295
3¢$21
2¢$53
1¢$24
Asks (sell)Size
24¢$20
25¢$120
26¢$160
27¢$40
97¢$22
98¢$53
99¢$21

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (14)

Buys 89%Sells 11%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
5 days agoSell22¢20
5 days agoSell78¢20
5 days agoBuy26¢20
5 days agoBuy74¢20
5 days agoBuy20¢150
5 days agoBuy80¢10
5 days agoSell20¢20
5 days agoBuy80¢20
5 days agoBuy80¢100
5 days agoBuy73¢80
5 days agoBuy26¢20
5 days agoBuy27¢20
5 days agoBuy27¢20
5 days agoBuy27¢20

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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Smart money is a Pro+ feature

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◆ Kalshi comparison

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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

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Related markets

The most-traded open Culture markets from other events.