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Updated 5 days ago

Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?

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4 %

chance

▲ +3.1%1h▼ −3.8%24h
Yes 4¢No 96¢

Total volume

$595

24h vol.

$451

1w vol.

$595

1m vol.

$595

Liquidity

$374.77

Bid / Ask

1¢ / 7¢

Spread 6¢

Last trade

7¢

Start date

Oct 14, 2026

End date

Mar 15, 2027

ends in 5 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 400 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 3¢
Bids (buy)Size
3¢$81
3¢$220
3¢$20
3¢$41
2¢$12
2¢$20
1¢$9
1¢$10
1¢$38
1¢$307
Asks (sell)Size
6¢$8
6¢$40
7¢$41
7¢$80
7¢$179
7¢$120
99¢$5
99¢$9
99¢$10
99¢$83

Snapshot from cache

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Recent trades (13)

Buys 55%Sells 45%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
5 days agoSell4¢28
5 days agoBuy4¢8
5 days agoSell96¢20
5 days agoSell93¢1
5 days agoBuy93¢1
5 days agoSell95¢1
5 days agoBuy95¢1
5 days agoSell95¢21
5 days agoBuy95¢1
5 days agoBuy95¢20
5 days agoBuy5¢28
5 days agoBuy95¢7
5 days agoBuy95¢21

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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◆ Kalshi comparison

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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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Related markets

The most-traded open Culture markets from other events.