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Updated 4 wk. ago

Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Politics
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2 %

chance

▼ −0.3%1h▼ −0.4%24h▼ −0.2%1W
Yes 2¢No 98¢

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

15 outcomes

Total volume

$1.5K

24h vol.

$150

1w vol.

$301

1m vol.

$312.32

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

2¢ / 3¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

2¢

Start date

Apr 22, 2026

End date

Apr 18, 2027

ends in 6 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
1¢$40
1¢$100
1¢$100
1¢$66
0¢$173
0¢$466
0¢$2,247
Asks (sell)Size
3¢$92
3¢$20
4¢$15
4¢$97
5¢$39
7¢$5
20¢$10
20¢$10
30¢$25
61¢$300

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 77%Sells 23%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoSell97¢11
1 mo. agoSell3¢11
2 mo. agoSell96¢4
2 mo. agoBuy96¢4
2 mo. agoSell2¢23
2 mo. agoBuy2¢23
2 mo. agoSell2¢47
2 mo. agoBuy2¢1
2 mo. agoBuy2¢6
2 mo. agoBuy2¢40
2 mo. agoSell2¢47
2 mo. agoBuy2¢7
2 mo. agoBuy2¢40
2 mo. agoBuy4¢98
2 mo. agoSell4¢33
2 mo. agoSell4¢21
2 mo. agoBuy96¢44
2 mo. agoSell1¢20
2 mo. agoBuy1¢10
2 mo. agoBuy1¢10
2 mo. agoSell2¢20
2 mo. agoBuy2¢20
2 mo. agoSell3¢35
2 mo. agoBuy3¢20
2 mo. agoBuy3¢15
2 mo. agoSell3¢40
2 mo. agoBuy3¢14
2 mo. agoBuy3¢6
2 mo. agoBuy3¢20
2 mo. agoBuy96¢231
2 mo. agoBuy4¢171
2 mo. agoBuy4¢40
2 mo. agoBuy4¢20
2 mo. agoBuy95¢20
2 mo. agoBuy5¢20
2 mo. agoSell5¢0
2 mo. agoBuy5¢0
2 mo. agoSell6¢66
2 mo. agoBuy6¢0
2 mo. agoBuy6¢20
2 mo. agoBuy6¢6
2 mo. agoBuy6¢40
2 mo. agoSell6¢20
2 mo. agoBuy6¢20
2 mo. agoBuy93¢217
2 mo. agoBuy7¢20
2 mo. agoBuy7¢66
2 mo. agoBuy7¢111
2 mo. agoBuy7¢20
2 mo. agoSell7¢16

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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.