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Updated 4 wk. ago

Will Trump pardon Andrew Tate before 2027?
4 %
chance
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
24 outcomes- Daniel Penny21 %
- Stefan Brodie16 %
- Donald Brodie15 %
- Roger Ver15 %
- Ryan Salame11 %
- Keonne Rodriguez11 %
- Matt Gaetz10 %
- Steve Bannon8 %
- Julian Assange6 %
- Joe Exotic6 %
- Roger Stone5 %
- Nicolas Maduro5 %
- Himself5 %
- Diddy5 %
- Elizabeth Holmes5 %
- Ghislaine Maxwell5 %
- Do Kwon5 %
- Eric Adams4 %
- Young Thug4 %
- Derek Chauvin4 %
- Andrew Tate4 %
- Sam Bankman-Fried4 %
- Martin Shkreli3 %
- Elon Musk3 %
Total volume
$1.6K
24h vol.
$148.36
1w vol.
$173.61
1m vol.
$1.4K
Liquidity
$10.2K
Bid / Ask
3¢ / 5¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
3¢
Start date
Jul 21, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 5 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 25 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 92¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 39 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 19 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 13 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 27 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 7 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 33 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 206 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 9 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 37 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 180 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 170 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 119 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 119 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 40 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.