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Updated 3 wk. ago
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny before 2027?
21 %
chance
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
24 outcomes- Daniel Penny21 %
- Stefan Brodie16 %
- Donald Brodie15 %
- Roger Ver15 %
- Ryan Salame11 %
- Keonne Rodriguez11 %
- Matt Gaetz10 %
- Steve Bannon8 %
- Julian Assange6 %
- Joe Exotic6 %
- Roger Stone5 %
- Nicolas Maduro5 %
- Himself5 %
- Diddy5 %
- Elizabeth Holmes5 %
- Ghislaine Maxwell5 %
- Do Kwon5 %
- Eric Adams4 %
- Young Thug4 %
- Derek Chauvin4 %
- Andrew Tate4 %
- Sam Bankman-Fried4 %
- Martin Shkreli3 %
- Elon Musk3 %
Total volume
$1.1K
24h vol.
$152.6
1w vol.
$152.6
1m vol.
$640.978
Liquidity
$137.908
Bid / Ask
1¢ / 41¢
Spread 40¢
Last trade
8¢
Start date
Nov 18, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 153 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 414 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 100 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 130 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 84 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 90¢ | 22 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 2 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 6 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 14 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 83¢ | 101 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 80 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 76¢ | 13 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 25¢ | 8 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 62¢ | 6 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 62¢ | 6 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 81¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 13 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 85¢ | 26 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 6 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 26 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 19 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 26¢ | 21 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 73¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 74¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 3 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 3 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 11 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 3 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 8 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 90¢ | 11 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 90¢ | 11 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 90¢ | 11 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.