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Updated 1 mo. ago
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
4 %
chance
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
24 outcomes- Daniel Penny21 %
- Stefan Brodie16 %
- Donald Brodie15 %
- Roger Ver15 %
- Ryan Salame11 %
- Keonne Rodriguez11 %
- Matt Gaetz10 %
- Steve Bannon8 %
- Julian Assange6 %
- Joe Exotic6 %
- Roger Stone5 %
- Nicolas Maduro5 %
- Himself5 %
- Diddy5 %
- Elizabeth Holmes5 %
- Ghislaine Maxwell5 %
- Do Kwon5 %
- Eric Adams4 %
- Young Thug4 %
- Derek Chauvin4 %
- Andrew Tate4 %
- Sam Bankman-Fried4 %
- Martin Shkreli3 %
- Elon Musk3 %
Total volume
$144.7K
24h vol.
$341.72
1w vol.
$2.3K
1m vol.
$9K
Liquidity
$31K
Bid / Ask
4¢ / 4¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
4¢
Start date
Nov 18, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 26 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 96¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 26 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 26 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 50 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 35 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 96¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 42 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 42 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 96¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 26 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 283 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 55 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 208 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 5,092 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 100 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 4,951 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 96¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 47 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 97¢ | 47 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.