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Updated 3 wk. ago

Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027?
16 %
chance
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
24 outcomes- Daniel Penny21 %
- Stefan Brodie16 %
- Donald Brodie15 %
- Roger Ver15 %
- Ryan Salame11 %
- Keonne Rodriguez11 %
- Matt Gaetz10 %
- Steve Bannon8 %
- Julian Assange6 %
- Joe Exotic6 %
- Roger Stone5 %
- Nicolas Maduro5 %
- Himself5 %
- Diddy5 %
- Elizabeth Holmes5 %
- Ghislaine Maxwell5 %
- Do Kwon5 %
- Eric Adams4 %
- Young Thug4 %
- Derek Chauvin4 %
- Andrew Tate4 %
- Sam Bankman-Fried4 %
- Martin Shkreli3 %
- Elon Musk3 %
Total volume
$3.5K
24h vol.
$431.38
1w vol.
$461.38
1m vol.
$669.29
Liquidity
$10.5K
Bid / Ask
14¢ / 17¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
17¢
Start date
Nov 19, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 153 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 17¢ | 15 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 17¢ | 15 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 81¢ | 2 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 2 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 5 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 5 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 22 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 7 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 15 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 25 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 5 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 76¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 78¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 17¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 17¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 63¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 37¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 22¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 78¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 22¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 22¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 78¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 78¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 50 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 78¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 22¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 22¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 77¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 23¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 77¢ | 5 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.