← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 4 wk. ago
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?
6 %
chance
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
24 outcomes- Daniel Penny21 %
- Stefan Brodie16 %
- Donald Brodie15 %
- Roger Ver15 %
- Ryan Salame11 %
- Keonne Rodriguez11 %
- Matt Gaetz10 %
- Steve Bannon8 %
- Julian Assange6 %
- Joe Exotic6 %
- Roger Stone5 %
- Nicolas Maduro5 %
- Himself5 %
- Diddy5 %
- Elizabeth Holmes5 %
- Ghislaine Maxwell5 %
- Do Kwon5 %
- Eric Adams4 %
- Young Thug4 %
- Derek Chauvin4 %
- Andrew Tate4 %
- Sam Bankman-Fried4 %
- Martin Shkreli3 %
- Elon Musk3 %
Total volume
$5.6K
24h vol.
$192.041
1w vol.
$192.041
1m vol.
$197.041
Liquidity
$11.8K
Bid / Ask
5¢ / 6¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
5¢
Start date
Nov 18, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 7 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 7 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 7 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 7 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 27 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 7 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 22 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 2 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 90 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 92¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 91¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 92¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 10¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 710 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 35 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 73 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 50 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 552 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 179 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 31 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 128 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 57 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 30 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 27 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 327 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 29 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 112 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 35 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.