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Updated 4 wk. ago
Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
79 %
chance
Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026
19 outcomes- Harry Kane99 %
- Lamine Yamal98 %
- Kylian Mbappé95 %
- Rodri79 %
- Lionel Messi71 %
- Michael Olise24 %
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia22 %
- Ousmane Dembélé14 %
- Fabian Ruiz12 %
- Erling Haaland9 %
- Vitinha4 %
- Luis Diaz4 %
- Jude Bellingham4 %
- Lautaro Martinez4 %
- Declan Rice4 %
- Pau Cubarsi3 %
- Achraf Hakimi3 %
- Bruno Fernandes2 %
- Vinícius Júnior1 %
Total volume
$15.5K
24h vol.
$50
1w vol.
$5.1K
1m vol.
$13K
Liquidity
$4.5K
Bid / Ask
78¢ / 79¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
77¢
Start date
Aug 7, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 1,561 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 67.1% resolved YES. That is 5.6 points less often than their average price of 72.7% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 31¢ | 9 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 69¢ | 9 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 69¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 69¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 69¢ | 9 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 69¢ | 9 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 69¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 69¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 66¢ | 65 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 34¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 66¢ | 25 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 66¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 65¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 65¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 35¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 65¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 64¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 64¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 65¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 65¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 65¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 65¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 65¢ | 35 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 35¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 65¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 34¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 66¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 64¢ | 60 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 64¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 64¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 67¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 67¢ | 14 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 33¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 77¢ | 240 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 77¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 77¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 77¢ | 80 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 77¢ | 80 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 77¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 23¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 0 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 22¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 67 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 82¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 7 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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