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Updated 4 wk. ago
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4 %
chance
Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026
19 outcomes- Harry Kane99 %
- Lamine Yamal98 %
- Kylian Mbappé95 %
- Rodri79 %
- Lionel Messi71 %
- Michael Olise24 %
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia22 %
- Ousmane Dembélé14 %
- Fabian Ruiz12 %
- Erling Haaland9 %
- Vitinha4 %
- Luis Diaz4 %
- Jude Bellingham4 %
- Lautaro Martinez4 %
- Declan Rice4 %
- Pau Cubarsi3 %
- Achraf Hakimi3 %
- Bruno Fernandes2 %
- Vinícius Júnior1 %
Total volume
$1.1K
24h vol.
$10
1w vol.
$233.042
1m vol.
$698.711
Liquidity
$6.8K
Bid / Ask
3¢ / 5¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
3¢
Start date
Aug 7, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 291 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.4%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (33)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 14 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 14 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 47 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 14 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 33 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 12 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 12 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 90¢ | 12 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 90¢ | 12 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 92¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 12 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 12 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 12 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 12 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 0 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 12 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 32 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 12 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 33 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 33 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 30 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 4¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 50 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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