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Updated 4 wk. ago
Will Luis Diaz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4 %
chance
Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026
19 outcomes- Harry Kane99 %
- Lamine Yamal98 %
- Kylian Mbappé95 %
- Rodri79 %
- Lionel Messi71 %
- Michael Olise24 %
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia22 %
- Ousmane Dembélé14 %
- Fabian Ruiz12 %
- Erling Haaland9 %
- Vitinha4 %
- Luis Diaz4 %
- Jude Bellingham4 %
- Lautaro Martinez4 %
- Declan Rice4 %
- Pau Cubarsi3 %
- Achraf Hakimi3 %
- Bruno Fernandes2 %
- Vinícius Júnior1 %
Total volume
$202.637
24h vol.
$49.31
1w vol.
$49.31
1m vol.
$70.31
Liquidity
$1.2K
Bid / Ask
1¢ / 7¢
Spread 6¢
Last trade
2¢
Start date
Aug 7, 2026
End date
Oct 26, 2026
ends in 1 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 400 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
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Recent trades (14)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 49 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 5 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 7 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 2¢ | 21 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 4 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 17 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 28 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 28 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 96¢ | 104 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 28 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 21 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 4¢ | 55 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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