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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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71 %

chance

▲ +0.5%1h▲ +1.0%24h▲ +4.5%1W
Yes 71¢No 29¢

Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026

19 outcomes

Total volume

$30K

24h vol.

$107.881

1w vol.

$3.7K

1m vol.

$18.1K

Liquidity

$4.9K

Bid / Ask

70¢ / 72¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

70¢

Start date

Aug 7, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,561 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 67.1% resolved YES. That is 5.6 points less often than their average price of 72.7% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 3¢
Bids (buy)Size
41¢$574
37¢$150
32¢$90
31¢$46
29¢$100
28¢$100
27¢$100
25¢$118
24¢$100
21¢$100
Asks (sell)Size
44¢$10
45¢$35
85¢$160
86¢$200
90¢$200
91¢$20
98¢$20
99¢$5

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 97%Sells 3%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoSell45¢30
1 mo. agoBuy44¢10
1 mo. agoBuy45¢20
1 mo. agoBuy40¢1,550
1 mo. agoBuy60¢1,550
1 mo. agoBuy40¢34
1 mo. agoBuy60¢34
1 mo. agoBuy40¢3
1 mo. agoBuy60¢3
1 mo. agoBuy40¢8
1 mo. agoBuy60¢8
1 mo. agoBuy40¢3
1 mo. agoBuy60¢3
1 mo. agoBuy40¢10
1 mo. agoBuy60¢10
1 mo. agoBuy40¢10
1 mo. agoBuy60¢10
1 mo. agoBuy40¢10
1 mo. agoBuy60¢10
1 mo. agoBuy40¢2,500
1 mo. agoBuy60¢2,500
1 mo. agoBuy64¢20
1 mo. agoSell64¢20
1 mo. agoBuy63¢21
1 mo. agoSell64¢1
1 mo. agoBuy37¢20
1 mo. agoSell37¢108
1 mo. agoSell63¢77
1 mo. agoBuy37¢20
1 mo. agoSell63¢11
1 mo. agoBuy39¢12
1 mo. agoBuy61¢12
1 mo. agoBuy40¢11
1 mo. agoBuy60¢11
1 mo. agoBuy40¢7
1 mo. agoBuy60¢7
1 mo. agoSell61¢11
1 mo. agoBuy61¢11
1 mo. agoBuy61¢8
1 mo. agoSell63¢0
1 mo. agoBuy38¢0
1 mo. agoBuy39¢8
1 mo. agoBuy61¢12
1 mo. agoBuy39¢12
1 mo. agoBuy40¢115
1 mo. agoBuy60¢115
1 mo. agoBuy62¢20
1 mo. agoBuy38¢20
1 mo. agoBuy61¢99
1 mo. agoBuy39¢20

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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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