← Dashboard · Culture
Updated 4 wk. ago
Will Bruno Fernandes finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
2 %
chance
Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026
19 outcomes- Harry Kane99 %
- Lamine Yamal98 %
- Kylian Mbappé95 %
- Rodri79 %
- Lionel Messi71 %
- Michael Olise24 %
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia22 %
- Ousmane Dembélé14 %
- Fabian Ruiz12 %
- Erling Haaland9 %
- Vitinha4 %
- Luis Diaz4 %
- Jude Bellingham4 %
- Lautaro Martinez4 %
- Declan Rice4 %
- Pau Cubarsi3 %
- Achraf Hakimi3 %
- Bruno Fernandes2 %
- Vinícius Júnior1 %
Total volume
$93.28
24h vol.
$11.99
1w vol.
$11.99
1m vol.
$11.99
Liquidity
$174.423
Bid / Ask
1¢ / 4¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
0¢
Start date
Aug 7, 2026
End date
Oct 26, 2026
ends in 1 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 400 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (10)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 12 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 12 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 12 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 12 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 98¢ | 28 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 2¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 41 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 21 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Culture markets from other events.