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Updated 1 mo. ago
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
22 %
chance
Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026
19 outcomes- Harry Kane99 %
- Lamine Yamal98 %
- Kylian Mbappé95 %
- Rodri79 %
- Lionel Messi71 %
- Michael Olise24 %
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia22 %
- Ousmane Dembélé14 %
- Fabian Ruiz12 %
- Erling Haaland9 %
- Vitinha4 %
- Luis Diaz4 %
- Jude Bellingham4 %
- Lautaro Martinez4 %
- Declan Rice4 %
- Pau Cubarsi3 %
- Achraf Hakimi3 %
- Bruno Fernandes2 %
- Vinícius Júnior1 %
Total volume
$23.6K
24h vol.
$50
1w vol.
$1.9K
1m vol.
$13.6K
Liquidity
$6.3K
Bid / Ask
21¢ / 23¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
24¢
Start date
Aug 7, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 2,886 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 31.4% resolved YES. That is 5.3 points more often than their average price of 26.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 50¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 52¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 51¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 51¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 51¢ | 59 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 51¢ | 50 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 49¢ | 9 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 51¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 49¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 52¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 208 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 79 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 29 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 52¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 54¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 54¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 54¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 54¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 55¢ | 150 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 55¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 55¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 34 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 55¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 16 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 15 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 55¢ | 150 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 50 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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Smart money is a Pro+ feature
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Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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