← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 10 hr. ago
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
Politics
1 %
chance
▼ −0.3%24h
Yes 1¢No 99¢
Market brief
- Last 50 trades: 8 buys, 42 sells; the largest was $14.9K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% one day before the end resolved YES (700 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 21 hr. (Nov 3, 2026).
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Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
50 outcomes- None37 %
- IA11 %
- IA, KS6 %
- KS4 %
- All 73 %
- AK, IA2 %
- IA, KS, ME2 %
- AK, IA, KS2 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX2 %
- AK2 %
- ME2 %
- IA, ME2 %
- OH1 %
- IA, KS, OH1 %
- TX1 %
- IA, TX1 %
- IA, KS, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, TX1 %
- IA, OH1 %
- AK, KS1 %
- IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX1 %
- IA, MI1 %
- IA, KS, MI1 %
- AK, IA, KS, OH1 %
- AK, IA, KS, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, OH, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1 %
- IA, KS, OH, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME1 %
- KS, OH1 %
- IA, KS, ME, OH1 %
- MI1 %
- IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %
- AK, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %
- KS, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI1 %
- IA, ME, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %
- AK, KS, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, TX0 %
- AK, IA, OH0 %
- IA, ME, MI0 %
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH0 %
- IA, KS, MI, TX0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI0 %
Total volume
$670.9K
24h vol.
$566.1K
1w vol.
$671.1K
1m vol.
$671.1K
Liquidity
$762.2K
Bid / Ask
1¢ / 1¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
1¢
Start date
Oct 26, 2026
End date
Nov 3, 2026
ends in 21 hr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 700 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% one day before resolution, 1.9% resolved YES. Their average price was 0.8%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 0¢Bids (buy)Size
1¢$9,250
1¢$98,615
1¢$2,100
0¢$6,900
0¢$216,917
0¢$2,778,283
0¢$1,198,064
Asks (sell)Size
1¢$147
1¢$1,000
1¢$4,444
1¢$14,308
1¢$682,264
2¢$30,000
2¢$200
2¢$1,000
2¢$200
4¢$13
Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
Buys 8%Sells 92%
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 16 |
| 10 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 10 |
| 10 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 200 |
| 10 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 200 |
| 10 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 15 |
| 10 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 375 |
| 11 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 35 |
| 11 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 88 |
| 11 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 200 |
| 11 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 20 |
| 13 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 65 |
| 13 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 9 |
| 13 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 6 |
| 13 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 9 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 40 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 10 |
| 16 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 15 |
| 16 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 130 |
| 16 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 20 |
| 16 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 90 |
| 17 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 202 |
| 17 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 35 |
| 17 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 35 |
| 17 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 1,143 |
| 17 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 35 |
| 17 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 15 |
| 17 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 35 |
| 17 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 15 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 15 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 940 |
| 22 hr. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 676 |
| 24 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 950 |
| 24 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 15,000 |
| 24 hr. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 10,000 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 190 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 100 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 20 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 14 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 150 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 150 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 200 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 120 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 786 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1,574 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1,063 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1,235 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1,268 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1,100 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 120 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 1¢ | 981 |
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