← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 6 days ago
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
4 %
chance
Market brief
- Last 48 trades: 9 buys, 39 sells; the largest was $57 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% one day before the end resolved YES (700 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 21 hr. (Nov 3, 2026).
◆ Your call
What's your number?
Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
50 outcomes- None37 %
- IA11 %
- IA, KS6 %
- KS4 %
- All 73 %
- AK, IA2 %
- IA, KS, ME2 %
- AK, IA, KS2 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX2 %
- AK2 %
- ME2 %
- IA, ME2 %
- OH1 %
- IA, KS, OH1 %
- TX1 %
- IA, TX1 %
- IA, KS, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, TX1 %
- IA, OH1 %
- AK, KS1 %
- IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX1 %
- IA, MI1 %
- IA, KS, MI1 %
- AK, IA, KS, OH1 %
- AK, IA, KS, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, OH, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1 %
- IA, KS, OH, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME1 %
- KS, OH1 %
- IA, KS, ME, OH1 %
- MI1 %
- IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %
- AK, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %
- KS, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI1 %
- IA, ME, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %
- AK, KS, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, TX0 %
- AK, IA, OH0 %
- IA, ME, MI0 %
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH0 %
- IA, KS, MI, TX0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI0 %
Total volume
$238.4K
24h vol.
$107.3K
1w vol.
$238.5K
1m vol.
$238.5K
Liquidity
$1.9M
Bid / Ask
4¢ / 4¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
4¢
Start date
Oct 26, 2026
End date
Nov 3, 2026
ends in 21 hr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 700 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% one day before resolution, 1.9% resolved YES. Their average price was 0.8%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (48)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 days ago | Buy | 7¢ | 371 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 5¢ | 10 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 4¢ | 5 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 5¢ | 20 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 4¢ | 20 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 103 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 4¢ | 30 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 4¢ | 20 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 5¢ | 157 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 20 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 85 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 6 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 17 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 14 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 12 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 5 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 60 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 6 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 30 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 6 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 6 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 6 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 6 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 6 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 18 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 17 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 6 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 7¢ | 3 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 7¢ | 30 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 7¢ | 9 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 7¢ | 8 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 7 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 13 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 10 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 10 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 12 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 20 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 18 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 11 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 11 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 11 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 10 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 10 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 1 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 11 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 3 |
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House6 %▲ +0.0%
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?95 %▲ +0.0%
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0 %▲ +0.1%
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?25 %▼ −5.0%
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?26 %▼ −2.0%
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?81 %▲ +2.0%
Keep exploring
Moving today
Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.